Expected value is a wonderful topic. Easy enough to learn in an hour, but complex and applicable enough to keep you interested for years.
As someone who’s always in search of the answer, always trying to synthesize (or let’s be honest, over analyze!) a dataset into meaning, EV has become my sliderule, toolbox, and IDE, letting me input the right parameters to spit out an objective solution.
Through poker and gambling in general, I’ve learned how math, logic and probability can be used to solve complex problems. Although in the end a decision may be as basic as a simple +EV or -EV output, the logic and analysis used to get to that result can include many challenging models, assumptions, estimations and debates. And aren’t those activities some of the most mentally stimulating parts of your workday?
For awhile I’ve been trying to figure out how to present this concept along with how it can help you with the day-to-day work you do. I’ve found a way to tell this story and am sharing that here below.